[R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S]
Please be advised that recommendations provided below are cursory and may include sections from our comprehensive reports provided to clients. Recommendation offered below are not always up to date and real time advice is available to current clients.
This recommendation last updated on January 6, 2009.
Crude Oil: Neutral
In late July 2008 we initiated a sell recommendation on Light Sweet Crude Oil with a price target of $85. Upon reaching $85, our recommendation was to cover 50% of initial short position. At the price level of the mid $50s) we continued to see downward pressure on oil prices; however, we found the risk of un-hedged short positions outweighing the potential profit that may have been obtained from further price destruction. As of the middle of December 2008, we initiated a buy position on Light Sweet with a short term price target of $55 as the market continues to consolidate.
Natural Gas: Buy
In the beginning, prices of commodities were based on the simple supply and demand of a given commodity. Then came along commodities derivatives which are future contracts to buy or sell a certain commodity at a certain date in the future, at a specified price. This caused a shift of emphasis away from the current supply and demand of the commodity to the perceived availability of the contract itself. At times, it is the supply and demand of the futures contracts that has driven the price of commodities rather than the actual supply and demand of the commodity itself. Recently, the market was introduced to a new instrument called Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) giving investors the opportunity to trade a commodity without the need to involve complex futures contracts. ETFs are investment vehicles traded on stock exchanges and hold the actual commodity at approximately the same price as the net asset value of its underlying commodity over the course of the trading day. As an example, average investors can own Gold by purchasing the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD). The investment seeks to strive to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust’s expenses. The Trust holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of basket.
Clients: Please refer to commodity specific research notes offering detailed insight.
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